AFC Preview

I’ve held off writing my NFL preview/prediction post because I, like the rest of America, was unsure of where Brett Favre (“Favre” is French for “The Almighty” in case you didn’t already know) would land and now that it has finally been sorted out I can lumber on with my preview. In years past I did a team-by-team breakdown but I’m throwing it out this year because I think that both the AFC and NFC will be so wide open that I just don’t feel like wasting space and words and energy trying to find the minor differences that separate all thirty two teams. The sports media world would like to convince you that this season will unfold almost identically like last year (again). Of the top ten teams in ESPN’s Power Rankings, the first seven have all been kept in the exact same positions going into this season as they were when the season ended last year (the Packers jumped from #10 to #8, which is sure to change after the Favre trade; the Seahawks went from #8 to #9; the Browns from #9 to #10).

Set aside this ludicrous nature of this list (what are the odds that the top eight teams here will make repeat appearances in the playoffs and in the same exact order? 100,000 to 1? 450,000 to 1?) and you essentially have a sports media world that makes its predictions based on last years results without ever allowing room for the very real possibility of injuries. Of course, the Colts and Patriots are loaded and they should be forerunners for winning their respective divisions but both have suspect secondaries and both could be brought down to Earth very quickly if they experience injuries on that side of the field. The overall health of a team, the timing of schedules (always an overlooked factor of luck for a team), and being able to cut through a team’s performance by objectively seeking out whether they are overachieving is something that no one ever bothers to bring up (most of the time). Last year, everyone melted over the Packers hot start to the season but along the way completely overlooking that they beat the Giants and Chargers when both teams were struggling mightily and that Brett Favre was still getting away with high-risk passing attempts. No one should have been surprised by the Packers loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game and, yet, everyone seemed genuinely shocked when it happened—like they had just witnessed a teenage girl eviscerate an adult lion with her bare hands.

So, injuries, timing of schedule, and overachieving are the factors I am using to base these predictions. Here is my 2008-09 AFC preview and predictions:

The Chargers, Colts, and Patriots will win their divisions but they all have huge question marks that could possibly derail a playoff appearance altogether. All three teams should be the front runners for each division if for nothing else than from a talent perspective. The Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders out west (amongst many other things) have huge QB question marks, the Jaguars, Titans, and Texans in the south simply can’t beat Indy twice in a season, and the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins can’t beat the Pats twice either. Having said that, the Chargers are in the weirdest predicament because they almost made it to the Super Bowl yet they did so without LaDanian Tomlinson at all and Philip Rivers only seeing limited action before getting hurt. And they still have Norv Turner as their coach—the same Norv Turner who, with only a few minutes left in the AFC Championship game and needing a touchdown, decided to punt on fourth down to a team that broke all scoring records.

Of the three teams, the Colts should be the team with the most confidence going into this season as they will play the NFC East and AFC North and they re-signed Tony Dungy in the offseason and allowed him the provisions that he asked for—that he be given more time away from the team to focus on family. Yes, the Colts have to play the Patriots and the Chargers but an 11-5 or 12-4 record will most likely win the south so if they can stay healthy they should win the division.

The Patriots, on the other hand, have a lot to be worried about. Their ground game hasn’t been validated, their secondary (on paper) makes the ’97 Bears look like world-killers, and no one fully knows how damaged their psyche is after that Super Bowl loss. LT Matt Light was abused in the Super Bowl, will he recover mentally? Most importantly, will Bill Belichick be the same after last year? Between the Spygate stuff, running up the score in games, turning his team into a pass-wacky road show, and losing a heavily favored Super Bowl will this be the year that he becomes a flawed human being? Remember, we all thought that Mike Martz was a genius and Belichick exposed him in the Patriots first Super Bowl victory and Martz hasn’t been the same since. I can’t help but think that Belichick losing in essentially the same way on the Super Bowl stage will have its mental repercussions too.

As for the AFC North, honestly, who cares? The Bengals are a joke, there is too much preseason love for the Browns (a sure sign to stay away from picking them), and the Ravens are essentially the Bears as they both desperately deny that the first round QBs they have (Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman, respectively) are busts. Which kind of leaves the Steelers as division champs by default. I guess.

The only way that I can tell that the Chargers, Colts, Patriots, and Steelers won’t win their division titles if they suffer injuries (either one major one like Manning or Brady, or a collection of stomach-punch injuries like Rivers, Luis Castillo, Quentin Jammer and Antonio Gates), or if some other teams completely overachieve. The Ravens might officially hand over the keys to Troy Brown and the team starts to play inspired ball. The Jaguars might finally beat the Colts twice then benefit from a schedule that appears (at this moment) to be extremely winnable (for example, this stretch: at Den, Cle, at Cin, at Det, Tenn, Minn, at Hou, at Chi, GB).

It is impossible to quantify overachieving teams as sometimes veterans in contract years make an implausible jump or players rallying around coaches who are on the hot seat. Whatever the scenario, you certainly cannot say reliably that the same four teams who won last year’s divisions will easily repeat their dominance again this year. On paper, the Chargers, Colts, Patriots, and Steelers look like the teams to beat. However, here are my predictions based on injury and overachieving factors:

— Patriots win AFC East but not by much because of a combination of a thin secondary and the potential for Bill Belichick’s megalomaniacal game plans to hurt the team late in games.

— No other AFC East team will make the playoffs. Sorry Brett Favre and Jets fans but the players you picked up in free agency (namely Damien Woody and Alan Faneca) are probably on the downside of their careers.

— The Bills would make the playoffs if Dick Jauron were not their coach.

— Team most likely to overachieve and reach the playoffs: Oakland Raiders or the Houston Texans. Both are under the radar, picked up somewhat smart free agents (though DeAngelo Hall could be a liability), and they play each other in week 16.

— The Broncos can win the west but only if they are healthy all year long and/or the Chargers suffer a lot of injuries.