Last week I posted the AFC preview and predictions and I’ll be using the same train of thought for the NFC (i.e.–this year is wide open, injuries and luck are just as crucial to a team’s success as their coaches and players, etc.). Anyway, on to the preview.
The NFC East is more wide open than people want to admit to. Provided that injuries don’t ravage one or two teams in the division, the Eagles, Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys can all win it. Each team always plays the others very tough so I doubt there will be any sweeps in the head-to-head matches. But the most important factor within this division is that, once again, everyone is eyeing the Cowboys as the team to beat while, once again, completely overlooking the team’s general dysfunction. If it isn’t bad enough that Tony Romo still hasn’t won a playoff game or a meaningful road game (yet he still gets a pass in the media, welcome to the Brett Favre Club!), or that semi-demented owner Jerry Jones is doing anything he can to make sure that the Cowboys have a Super Bowl-looking (emphasis on looking) team to play in their new billion dollar home (including signing “Pacman” Jones), you still have a team in a coaching disarray that no one wants to talk about. Wade Philips was only tepidly supported this past offseason because the ultimate goal is to fire him as quickly as possible so that current offensive coordinator Jason Garrett can be given the keys to the team. Factor in the obligatory Terrell Owens stuff and-oh-by-the-way it was the Giants who won the Super Bowl last year and the Eagles secondary looks to be the best in the league and I don’t know how anyone can take the Cowboys seriously.
Meanwhile in the NFC North, an 8-8 record may win the division. Yes, the Vikings sure are scary-looking with their #1 rushing and #1 rushing defense last year. Factor in the trade for DE Jared Allen and the team looks pretty complete, except at the QB position which I hear is pretty important. If Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie are healthy you can put in the books that the Vikes will win the division. However, if Hutchinson goes down (as I said last year too) this team will become extremely pedestrian and Adrian Peterson will look a lot like Shaun Alexander did during his first Hutchinson-less season (possible future coincidence?). Same goes for the rushing defense if Pat Williams goes for a stretch. As for the Bears, Packers, and Lions… um, nobody’s really expecting big things from them so if any of them wind up winning the division it’ll be because of an off-the-charts level of overachievement or because the aforementioned injuries hit the Vikings.
While I have heard rumors that there is an NFC West division in the NFL, I cannot conclusively prove or deny it. Supposedly, there are teams in St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona but I’m not sure. Stay tuned.
Because the Giants went on to win the Super Bowl after playing their week 17 matchup with the Pats full-on, expect the first victim of the Giants run, the Buccaneers, to play with a chip on their shoulder this year. Derrick Brooks is running on limited miles, Jeff Garcia’s time is around the corner, and Jon Gruden’s address in Tampa is fading a little bit and if you factor in how the team decided to end the season last year (in a very un-Gruden way of taking games off because they already had their highest seed clinched) the Bucs are probably going to learn from those mistakes and run away and hide with the division.
Don’t buy what the media is trying to sell you on with the Saints. It’s not happening, Jeremy Shockey or no Jeremy Shockey. Sean Payton gets a little too pass-wacky in his game plans, Reggie Bush is officially a poor man’s Joe Morris, and Duece McAllister can disappear in big games (or get hurt) with the best of them. The Saints are winning the NFC South only if they overachieve. On with the predictions:
- If Donovan McNabb is healthy the Eagles are winning the East. The Eagles now have DBs Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard which will allow them to play man at the corners while they blitz six and seven at intervals. You know, like they did when they won all of those division titles a few years ago. And with Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan at the tackles, tosses and sweeps to Brian Westbrook will still be a powerful weapon in the arsenal.
— The Giants can still definitely make the playoffs but their last five games of the season should concern anyone (@ Was, Phi, @ Dal, Car, @ Min), especially the Carolina game because the Giants typically overlook easy opponents when there’s a bigger game looming two weeks ahead. Also, Tom Coughlin, an old-school drill sergeant type of coach, was finally vindicated last year by winning four road games in a row to win the Super Bowl—how does he coach the team this year?
— Flip a coin on the NFC West. Could be the Seahawks, could be the Rams. Either way, they are losing in the first round of the playoffs.
— If the Vikings get bit hard by the injury bug look for the Bears and Packers to outdo each other in snatching defeat from victory on a weekly basis. I’d still give the edge to the Bears, though, because Kyle Orton won’t be under anywhere near the stress and pressure that Aaron Rodgers will be under.
— If the Packers don’t make the playoffs it won’t be because of Rodgers (unless, of course, he throws 27 INTs or something). The Packers were the biggest regular season overachievers last season and all of those young guys who were so used to winning last year won’t know what hit them when they have to play the AFC South this year (you know, as opposed to the Broncos, Raiders, and Chiefs like last year).
— Tampa Bay will win the South and will probably end up with a record of 12-4.
— Team most likely to underachieve and disappoint: the Saints. Shockey, Jonathan Vilma, Hollis Thomas, and Aaron Glenn are not the answers. Also, I do not wish to alarm you but the Saints currently have 15 players who have been in the league nine years or longer.
— Best game of the year (seriously): week 12, Packers @ Saints. A gut feeling tells me that this Monday night game feature a lot of scoring as the Packers running backs will run all over New Orleans and, in turn, New Orleans will throw all over the Packs secondary. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the highest scoring game of the year.
— Best game of the year (to the media): week 1, Vikings @ Packers. No more Favre! Rodgers to start! What if he throws an interception! “Suzy Kolber is in the stands. Suzy, what were the fans’ reaction to that Rodgers incompletion?” What would Favre have done?! LOUD NOISES!
— The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and they will line up against their former architect, Tony Dungy and his Colts. The Bucs quietly picked up some very sound acquisitions in the offseason (notably WR Antonio Bryant, C Jeff Faine, TE John Gilmore, QB Brian Griese, and S Eugene Wilson). Additionally, they have a strong young secondary (veterans Ronde Barber, Sammy Davis and Philip Buchanon are interspersed with rookies Elbert Mack and Aqib Talib), they still have Cato June and Derrick Brooks at linebacker and they have a large amount of youth waiting to be melded by Jon Gruden (they currently have 48 players with five years of experience or less). Factor in that the Bucs will play the AFC West and NFC North and this could be the year in which they return to the Super Bowl and Derrick Brooks will get one last ring to add to his Hall of Fame credentials.
— The only reason I didn’t pick the Eagles (who, I think, will have the best record in the NFC) to go to the Super Bowl is Andy Reid. In a matchup between Reid and Gruden, even if it’s in Philly, I’ll take Gruden.