AFC East (non-division games — NFC South and AFC South)
Buffalo Bills — Quite honestly, everything with this team begins and ends with Dick Jauron. Yes, the Bills acquired an ’01 version of a Nissan Altima in Terrell Owens (somewhat reliable, lots of mileage on it, when it acts problematic it becomes pretty expensive) and, yes, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch show legitimate promise. But Jauron is comically inept at managing an offense. If the Bills had gone out and traded for Jay Cutler, Anquan Boldin, and Darren Sproles this year there would still be a decent chance that they would only average 17 points a game. And if you need to win a big game? Jauron is not your man there either. Jauron is a very solid defensive-minded coach but in big games he is susceptible to calling defensive game plans that are way too conservative.
Possibility: if the Bills can overachieve and play above Jauron’s predictable end-of-season bad game plans, they could win 10 games and compete for the East title. A relatively easy schedule (their two non-division, -AFC South, -NFC South games are CLE, @ KC) that ends with Peyton Manning and his history of inconsistent play in cold weather coming to Buffalo in Week 17 and it may actually work out for the Bills.
Reality: they’ll battle the Dolphins for 2nd all year long but ultimately take third because Jauron will play a prevent defense against Manning, thus losing the game 31-14.
Miami Dolphins — Your typical Parcells-run team: a team that most likely has one too many veterans at important skill positions (CB Will Allen, LB Jason Taylor, NT Jason Ferguson, QB Chad Pennington) that could disrupt a lot of things if they under-perform. That said, if their offensive line stays healthy, they’ll be in every game and the Dolphins will be tough to beat at home.
Possibility: they win the East for a second consecutive year and Parcells gives Belichick the shit-eye from his office.
Reality: last five games of the season (NE, @ Jax, @ Ten, Hou, Pit) will take them out of contention for second straight title and they take second place in the division.
New England Patriots — Remember when the Patriots upset the heavily-favored Rams to win their first Super Bowl? And remember how Mike Martz was never the same afterwards? And remember how the Rams as a team were really never the same afterwards? I just can’t help but feel that the Super Bowl loss to the Giants is the Patriots’ Super Bowl swan song for a while. I mean, how does a franchise recover from suffering such a gigantic upset and then loses its franchise QB eight minutes into the first game in the very next season for the entire year? The football Gods tend to toy with high-octane offenses (again, see: Martz, Mike) and, honestly, can New England put it all together for one more run before Brady, Moss, Seymour, and their offensive line begin to enter their inevitable declines?
Possibility: they put it together offensively and their upgraded defense (a healthy Adalius Thomas, the shrewd Derrick Burgess trade, and Jerod Mayo with one year under his belt) and Belichick wins another ring and then steps down.
Reality: they win the East (the only two non-division road games that look unfavorable are @ Ind and @ NO; other than that, their schedule looks really favorable) but fall in the playoffs.
New York Jets — Um, when you have an old offensive line and an old front line in a 3-4 scheme… you should be thankful if you overachieve enough to take 2nd place in any division.
Possibility: they overachieve and, if they stay healthy, contend with the Pats for a little while before falling into 2nd place. They might be able to steal a wild card spot if everything lines up for them.
Reality: their linebacking corps and secondary is definitely good enough to keep them in any game if they stay healthy. But two things concern me: 1) that they’ll have to rely on Kris Jenkins and Shaun Ellis to generate a pass rush and 2) their first 6 games—@ Hou, NE, Ten, @ NO, @ Mia, Buf. I mean, they could easily start the year 2-4 or 1-5. The Jets will claim the cellar this year.
AFC North (non-division games — NFC North and AFC West)
Baltimore Ravens — Solid defense and QB Joe Flacco will be one year wiser after his better-than-exected rookie campaign. What’s not to like? I have no idea. Anything can happen with this team: Flacco could turn into Scott Mitchell; Flacco could improve; their WR corps reminds me of the Chiefs during Vermeil’s last year when they hung onto Eddie Kennison one year too long (I mean, Derrick Mason–the guy who retired a few weeks ago–he’s slated to be the #2 WR as of this moment?); John Harbaugh could be for real; they still have a good RB corps; the secondary is a top 10 unit.
Possibility: they stay healthy while the Steelers take some hits, combined with the fact that their physicality could result in easy wins against the NFC North and AFC West teams and they win the North.
Reality: the Steelers are just a notch better and the Ravens take 2nd place again and a wildcard spot. Either way, we will know definitively if they are for real by the start of Week 7 as Weeks 2, 4, and 6 are @ SD, @ NE, and @ Min respectively. If they 2-1 or 3-0 in those games and they stay healthy then all bets are off as to what their ceiling is this season.
Cincinnati Bengals — In the words of the immortal Mike Singletary: “Can’t do it.”
Possibility: the ghost of Paul Brown sets into motion an epic curse upon the Ravens and Steelers (and all of the AFC, for that matter) that allows the Bengals to win the division and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Reality: tied for last with Cleveland at 5-11.
Cleveland Browns — See: description of Cincinnati Bengals, above.
Possibility: the ghost of Paul Brown… oh, who am I kidding? It’s not even worth it.
Reality: see: description of Cincinnati Bengals, above.
Pittsburgh Steelers — This is a make-or-break year for this incarnation of the Steelers. Something about them just makes me think that they’re the San Antonio Spurs of the NFL—very good team, great depth, but can’t win back-to-back titles because everyone kind of forgets how much luck was involved in their winning the previous title. Last year, they had a great team. But they also had a team that seemed to have like 3-5 plays a game wherein Ben Roethlisberger was completing passes on broken plays and scrambling like mad. Roethlisberger possesses an immensely gifted ability when it comes to intangibles (it makes up 51% of the reason as to why he has two rings) but, like fumble recoveries, you can’t rely on it for a back-to-back title run; the luck begins to run out. That said, barring catastrophic injuires, the Steelers will win the division but I suspect a tripping up in the playoffs a lá the Patriots a few years ago in Denver will occur.
Possibility: the injury to Roethlisberger is more serious than first expected, and/or playing 19 games last season takes its toll on some players.
Reality: the Steelers will win the North, provided their offensive line and running back corps doesn’t get decimated by injuries.
AFC South (non-division games — NFC West and AFC East)
Houston Texans — Ladies and Gentlemen, your new Arizona Cardinals for the next ten to fifteen years! Every year, a small faction of NFL writers/analysts will write/say things like, “You know who I like as a sleeper team this year? The Houston Texans. Think about it: they’re totally under the radar and Matt Schaub is due for a big year… yadda, yadda, yadda.” This fell under the same category as all of those Cardinals-are-my-sleeper-pick-this-year writers/analysts from 1997 up until last year. As Chuck D once said, “Don’t believe the hype.” Even if the hype is only coming from 10% of the sports media.
Possibility: an aging Colts and Titans team gets caught with their pants down and the Texans sneak a division title grab.
Reality: the Texans will be very tough to beat at home, but they will falter on the road; the latter will cement their 3rd place finish, while the former should equate to you not being surprised when they beat the Colts and/or Titans at home this year.
Indianapolis Colts — Love, love, love the promotion of Jim Caldwell to head coach when Tony Dungy retired. The Colts may not have the same amount of championship hardware that the Steelers and Patriots have won this decade but the Colts as masters of consistency: for the entirety of his career, Peyton Manning has had Jeff Saturday as his center and Tom Moore as his coordinator; the Colts ability to draft in the late rounds is surpassed only by the Patriots; they only seem to hire coaches who unequivocally buy into their franchise (i.e.–no one announces that they’re leaving during the year a lá Monte Kiffin). All of this has help add up to the Colts being the first team in the history of the NFL to have won 12 games or more in 6 consecutive seasons. The beauty of this year’s Colts team is that we should be able to gauge how good they’ll be before their Week 6 bye as Weeks 1-5 are as follows: Jax, @ Mia, @ Ari, Sea, @ Ten. Other than that, road games at Baltimore and a Week 17 visit to cold Buffalo–should it be important–are the only other games that could thwart an AFC South title.
Possibility: any sustained injuries to Manning, WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark, or MLB Gary Brackett would severely hurt their chances of a playoff spot, let alone a high seed.
Reality: This team is built to handle the typical spot injuries of a season. They prove that last year’s Titans team was a fluke and win the AFC South by Week 15.
Jacksonville Jaguars — I passively loathe this team and I feel sorry for Jaguar fans. You have a team that constantly underachieves and a coach, Jack Del Rio, who, for whatever reason, just can’t be fired. Del Rio is what I call a “Brian Billick All-Star.” Billick somehow was able to keep his job for as long as he did and I’m not really sure why. Billed as an “offensive genius” (which, coincidentally, meant “I was the o-coordinator in Minnesota when Randall Cunningham simply threw bombs to Randy Moss when worse came to worse”), Billick was mostly a fraud in that respect and he always seem to find ways of turning his dynamic teams into vanilla teams that relied too much on their defense. He was Dick Jauron, Jr., essentially. Del Rio has somehow fooled people into believing that he is some defensive magician, but he has been at the helm of some legitimately good teams over the last few years and they have always found a way to underachieve. (For instance, how many times has a Del Rio-led team won in Indy?) I would be so pissed if I were a Jags fan because it’s like, “Hey, you’ve got a decent team year-in and year-out but a coach who pretty much negates everything…”
Possibility: the Jaguars actually start to click while the Colts and Titans suffer too many injuries, leading to a South title.
Reality: a continuation of last year—a last place finish and, hopefully, culminating in the firing of Del Rio.
Tennessee Titans — Not much to say, really; I think last year was a fluke. Their WR corps makes the Bears’ look like the ’87 Redskins, they are one sustained Chris Johnson injury away from having one of the worst RB corps in the league, and OLBs Keith Bulluck and David Thorton, CB Nick Harper, and DEs Jevon Kearse and Kyle Vanden Bosch have all been in the league at least 8 years—some of them are due for a decline.
Possibility: their defense will be healthy all season long and they will win 12 or 13 games because, if they stay healthy, their defense is a top-5 defense.
Reality: @ Pit, Ind, and @ NE all before Week 7 (as well as back-to-back home games against Miami and San Diego on Weeks 15 and 16) will probably ensure that the Titans will be in the wild card hunt and not the divisional title hunt.
AFC West (non-division games — NFC East and AFC North)
Denver Broncos — Like Seth said in Superbad, “this has been fucked since Jump Street!” My goodness! I completely understood why the Broncos fired Shanahan (I think he is a wildly overrated coach and it was time to move on), but to bring in a guy who almost immediately helps set off a chain of events that leads to Jay Cutler going to the Bears for essentially a new Camry and a stack of Best Buy gift cards? Wow. And they still have an unhappy (and potentially Tracy Jordan-esque) Brandon Marshall. And they still have a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the ball–quick, name the starting 3 in their new 3-4 scheme without looking it up? It still kind of baffles me that the Broncos got McDaniels, rather than making an honest attempt to get Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Because, you know, call me crazy, but I know I’d rather have the guy who helped get the freakin’ Arizona Cardinals to within two minutes of winning a Super Bowl over someone from the Bill Belichick coaching tree. But that’s just me.
Possibility: honestly, there’s no ceiling for this team in my opinion. They could finish last, they could win the West outright—even if the Chargers don’t suffer any major injuries. Nothing would surprise me.
Reality: that said, my gut says a 3rd place finish seems about right, especially when you consider how potentially murderous their schedule could be (a Week 4 through 14 stretch that looks like this: Dal, NE, @ SD, bye, @ Bal, Pit, @ Was, SD, NYG, @ KC, @ Ind–yikes).
Kansas City Chiefs — I have no idea why I think this but I have a feeling that the Chiefs will be the surprise team of the AFC this season. Good, young coaches with nothing to lose? Check—Todd Haley, Maurice Carthon, and Clancy Pendergast—combined with Chan Gailey—is an underrated group of coaches. A trio of young QBs with nothing to lose? Check—Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen: the equivalent to a very solid pitching staff in baseball. A team that no longer has the stink and rust associated with the Herm Edwards regime, thus effectively meaning that they have nothing to lose? Check. See where I’m going here? The Chiefs have nothing to lose—everyone’s already picked the Chargers to go to the Super Bowl (and if they falter at the beginning of the year, everyone will still focus on the Pats, Colts, and Steelers).
Possibility: the Chiefs take 2nd place in the West, sneak in to the playoffs as a #6 seed.
Reality: they’re still taking 2nd place in the West (unless Oakland or Denver completely overachieve, K.C. is a much better team), but a playoff spot may hinge more on the health of other teams rather than the inherent talent of the Chiefs (they are, after all, relying on Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel to make meaningful contributions). Either way, the Chiefs are going to be a tough team to beat.
Oakland Raiders — Aye carumba! What else is there to say really?
Possibility: I have a better chance of running into Reese Witherspoon at a hotel lobby, and her becoming so smitten with me that she simply must have her way with me in her suite than the Raiders have of making the playoffs. (Note to self: if Raiders make playoffs this year, fly to Los Angeles and loiter in hotel lobbies.)
Reality: the Raiders end up in last place, and I never catch a whiff of Reese’s suite.
San Diego Chargers — Beware of conventional wisdom! Oh sure, the Chargers will win the West (unless, of course, they are ravaged by injuries) but this is a flaky team through and through. If I have to say it again I will say it again: never, never, never, trust a Norv Turner-led team. Never. You have been warned. So, when you’re at home watching the pre-game shows for Week 12 and every analyst is falling over themselves talking about how “real” the Chargers are after their back-to-back victories over the Giants and Eagles, just know that it will make their inevitable playoff loss all the more sweet or painful (depending on what your angle is).
Possibility: could get knocked around by the AFC North and NFC East teams to the point of finishing in 2nd place.
Reality: the Broncos and Chiefs are still a year away (in the Broncos case, maybe even 2-3 years away) from making any serious noise so I have to go with the Chargers winning the division just by default. But, mark my words, they will fall apart in the playoffs. And it will be glorious–Norv Turner may even outdo himself this year.
Next week: the NFC preview and my Super Bowl prediction.