NFC East (non-division games — AFC West and NFC South)
Dallas Cowboys — There’s really no other way to put this: the Cowboys are officially becoming the porn star or stripper that’s kind of getting unofficially too old. They still make good money to the point that it kind of fools people into believing that they’re really popular, but underneath the veneer the real fans are thinking (if they were being 100% honest), “Ooh, I think their best days are behind them.” How many more December collapses will it take for people to realize that the troijka of Jerry Jones, Wade Phillips, and Tony Romo is not entirely dissimilar to those early- to mid-’90′s Dolphins teams that fooled you to thinking that, because future Hall Of Famers Shula and Marino were steering the ship, that they would always be in contention for the Super Bowl. Yes, they got rid of Terrell Owens, but they still have Tony “I Haven’t Yet Won A Big Game, Ever” Romo and Wade “Doormat” Phillips prominently involved with important roles on the team. And then you have the new $1 billion stadium—an ultra-deluxe whorehouse—to house all of this dysfunction and underachievement. (I don’t want to say that the new Cowboys’ stadium is over the top or anything, but from his grave Liberace even said it was “garishly overlarge.”)
Possibility: winning at least 3 of their 4 games in December would probably cement a playoff spot or an East title.
Reality: those 4 games are @ NYG, SD, @ NO, @ Was (then the last game is at home agains Philly in January) so I’m foreseeing yet another collapse, and a 3rd place finish.
New York Giants — The Giants, even with their perceived shortcomings at WR, are a really good and a really loaded team. Major injuries are the only thing that can stop them. Their organization is really overlooked compared to how the Pats, Colts, and Steelers have been run (and covered in the media) but the Giants kind of remind me of those early ’90′s Bills teams: rosters filled with guys you don’t hear about until the playoffs are around the corner (see: Chase Blackburn, Kevin Boss, and Kevin Dockery).
Possibility: major injuries to Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Domenik Hixon, Shaun O’Hara, or Rich Seubert would significantly hurt their playoff chances, especially when you factor in that their bye week isn’t until Week 10 and they have road games in KC, NO, and Min (the Vikings road game ends the season).
Reality: if they’re healthy, they will win the East and 12 games.
Philadelphia Eagles — Does Andy Reid think he’s Phil Jackson? I can kind of understand the whole taking-a-flyer-on-Michael-Vick thing but in the process Reid has kind of sabotaged the team’s pre-season, what with the media coverage of Vick and the subsequent and future attempts to insert him into an offense that he probably doesn’t need to be put in (I mean, really, you couldn’t have gone out and traded for Anquan Boldin? the team needs wide receivers not another QB). Oh, and no one is certain how long Vick will be suspended. Reid seems like a genuinely smart and likable guy but he’s not a born head coach—he would probably make for a top-tier offensive coordinator—and he seems to be steering a ship that is slowly sinking. It also seems like he is actively trying to see how much shit Donovan McNabb can take. The Eagles have needed WRs for a few years now (they even went to a Super Bowl simply because of Owens) and, yet, year after year they try to find gold in the draft, and if McNabb had any prima-dona tendencies at all he would’ve probably beaten Reid and the front office by now with a piece of a field goal post, screaming “Just give up the #1 and #2 picks for Boldin, God damnit! Fucking do it already! You’re killing me!”
(Separate note: a couple weeks ago the longtime Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jim Johnson died. (I say longtime coordinator because 10 years on the same time nowadays in the NFL is almost equal to 35 years.) Obviously, this has personal significance to the team first before it has any tactical or gameday significance. I have no idea how this will affect the team. This is more just an excuse to praise the guy. Johnson seemed to be the only guy in the league who actively demanded the most out of his CBs and free safeties. In a time where big-blitzing (i.e.-blitzing at least 6 guys) is indescribably risky (i.e.-quick throws to RBs or TEs in the flat will get you more yards nowadays because those guys are so much quicker than they were a decade ago), Johnson not only had a great feel for when to do it but he also had an immense amount of faith that his CBs could hold their own on their islands. I’m guessing that because of this—being on their own islands more than the average CB—almost every CB that has left the Eagles (Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard) has left the team upset and slighted. Maybe they thought that they deserved to be paid more or something. Their own egos at the time aside, I’m sure that all of them eventually regretted leaving the team and will probably be the first to say that Jim Johnson is one of the greatest defensive coaches of this generation.)
Possibility: a quick look at the Eagles’ depth chart reveals that, at this time, there are only 16 rookies and first-year players on the team. None of them are slated to start and only 5 of them are currently slotted as second-stringers. That’s a lot of eggs in the veteran basket. If they can click this year and get some help from some Giants’ injuries, they can win the division.
Reality: Reid is not good at handling circuses, their bye week is really early (Week 3), and their Week 6 through Week 13 stretch goes like this: @ Was, NYG, Dal, @ SD, @ Chi, Was, @ Atl, @ NYG. Unless they horribly underachieve or suffer major injuries, though, they’ll take 2nd in the division.
Washington Redskins — Just too many red flags with this team: they’ve essentially destroyed any confidence QB Jason Campbell could ever think of having by always publicly looking for another QB (this year it was Jay Cutler) or seemingly never quashing any talk of how Campbell not be right for them, RB Clinton Portis most likely will not stay healthy for a year, their signings of mega-star free agents (this year it was DT Albert Haynesworth) usually end up badly, and LE Phillip Daniels and RE Andre Carter have been in the league 13 and 8 years, respectively. Oh, and they signed CB DeAngelo Hall, who was waived by the Raiders last year. Say that again out loud: he was waived by the Raiders. The Oakland Raiders did not want him. Wow. And now he’s the starting RCB for the Redskins.
Possibility: the world as we know it is really The Matrix, except that a 40 year-old Redskins fan is controlling everything and the ’09-’10 Redskins team is replaced by the ’87-’88 Redskins team, just like you could change it in an exhibition game on Madden.
Reality: short of the above happening, last place in the East.
NFC North (non-division games — AFC North and NFC West)
Chicago Bears — Jay Cutler.
Possibility: Cutler gets hurt and/or the WR corps is really as bad as all of us Bears fans have feared, rendering this team to be exactly like last year’s 8-8 team that was riddled with inconsistencies (I know I had a blast watching a team that could not win 3 games in a row).
Reality: Bears win the North (provided Cutler doesn’t get hurt) and here’s why. Even if the addition of Cutler doesn’t translate into 21 or 24 points per game, the fact that the Bears now have a QB who can sustain drives, pick up 4 first downs before having to punt (which eats up the clock) is huge. Too many times over the last 5-6 years the Bears have had to punt after having the ball for two and a half minutes. Cutler and Forte can now chew up time on the clock consistently, which is huge for an aging defense with suspect CBs that will need as much rest as it can get.
Detroit Lions — It’s a rebuilding year. Again.
Possibility: they become a fiestier team that plays the spoiler role in their last 4 games (@ Bal, Ari, @ SF, Chi) and they take 3rd place in the North.
Reality: but as Beck once sang, “the limitations are limitless,” so too are the dearth of positive possibilities for this team. (It kind of pains me to type that last sentence so harshly because I really do believe that everyone benefits when the Lions field good teams—they have one of the best uniforms in the league, some of the best fans for sticking with them for so many awful years, and their team is synonymous with Thanksgiving. And, yes, I realize that I put their uniforms ahead of their fans and their annual Thanksgiving Day game. What do you want from me? I like the color blue.) That said, last place in the North again.
Green Bay Packers — Look, I know that a lot of people are falling in love with Aaron Rodgers. He’s a very good QB, he’s very accurate, and if memory serves me right he did not throw a single interception in the red zone last year. That said, I just have this nagging feeling that you cannot count on him to be healthy for 32 consecutive games. And the fact that 33 year-old Chad Clifton is still being tasked with protecting Rodgers’ blind side, this may not be a good year for the QB that replaced He Who Shall Not Be Named. Finally, something to be mindful of when you hear about how the Packers had a good pass defense last year: they had a statistically strong pass defense last year (#12 overall, #5 in the NFC) because their run defense was horrendous (#26 overall, #14 in the NFC). Because, you see, when you don’t have to pass the ball to beat a team, their pass defense looks real good. Something to look for as this secondary has probably not had to deal with an opponent’s full passing wrath yet.
Possibility: Packers win the North. Rodgers stays healthy, the RB corps wears down teams and new defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ new 3-4 scheme fixes all loose holes. (By the way, the addition of Capers will most likely be the real success of the Packers this year and not anything Rodgers-related. Unless, of course, the Packers win the division with a #29 overall defense or something.)
Reality: Packers finish 9-7, same record as the Vikings but the Packers will lose the tie-breakers. Thus, a 3rd place finish.
Minnesota Vikings — Oh goodness! The Football Gods have not been kind to the Vikings over the years (two years ago, the Vikings were #1 in the NFL in both rushing and run defense and were still denied entrance into the playoffs) and now they tempt the Gods by signing He Who Shall Not Be Named after much back-and-forth and the media circus surrounding it—and to say nothing of how all of this has potentially poisoned their own locker room. Minnesota Vikings, you jumped through all of those hoops to get a 40 year-old Brett Favre, not a 25 year-old Joe Montana or Tom Brady! The most important part to the Vikings’ game will be the health of LT Bryant McKinnie and LG Steve Hutchinson, also known as “the greatest left side of an offensive line since the tandem of Jonathan Ogden and Edwin Mulatalo.” So, go ahead and heaps lots of praise on Adrian Peterson but, as I have said before, he will instantly become Julius Jones if McKinnie or Hutchinson miss multiple games.
Possibility: no injuries to offensive or defensive line (and the necessary performing of the Football Gods’ demands so that all harmony is undisturbed) will equal a North title.
Reality: too much tempting of the Gods with that QB signing they desired. 2nd place, and possibly not even a wildcard spot—a finishing touch that the Football Gods put on Brad Childress just to remind him of how things work around here.
NFC South (non-division games — AFC East and NFC East)
Atlanta Falcons — Did you know that the Falcons have never had back-to-back winning seasons? Did you also know that the Falcons first round QB selections consisted of Randy Johnson, Steve Bartkowski, Chris Miller, and Michael Vick before they selected Matt Ryan last year? Of course, this isn’t scientific or anything, but, um, if history is any indication there’s a really good chance that both the Falcons and Matt Ryan will hit some bumps this year.
Possibility: the NFC South, while filled with teams that are very tough to beat at home, will be pretty weak this year. If the Falcons win 4 road games, they probably win the South.
Reality: road games at New England, Dallas (early in the year—you know, when the Cowboys are actually awake), and the Giants, and a road game against the Jets at the end of December? This, in tandem with the fact that teams will not be surprised by Atlanta (it’s amazing how a year’s worth of film turns out-of-nowhere contenders into pretenders) will equal the Falcons taking last place in a very competitive South division. (Competitive in the sense that 6-10 will be the worst record, unlike 3-13 or 4-12 in other divisions.)
Carolina Panthers — So, let me get this straight? John Fox and the Panthers front office, after taking into account the implosion of Jake Delhomme in the playoffs, looked around the league and the draft and thought, “We’ll be okay with Jake”? Wow. This Panthers team confounds the hell out of me. One the one hand, their defense will most likely be solid as it always is; on the other hand, you had the Julius Peppers fiasco and if he decides to diva it up it could be semi-toxic. On the one hand, the Panthers offensive line really is pretty good (in spite of the Cardinals owning them last year) and their RB tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is potentially all-world; on the other hand, the WR tandem of Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad is starting to get seriously old and when will teams just be able to line up eight in the box against them to kill the run?
Possibility: God only knows—they could win 4 or 14 games… I have no idea.
Reality: 3rd place. Don’t know why; it’s just what I’m going with.
New Orleans Saints — Here are the facts: the Saints are going to pass way too much, the media is going to overpraise Drew Brees and Sean Payton throughout the year, and the Saints are going to be very tough to beat at home (as per usual). Because of that last fact, the Saints are pretty fortunate to have the Giants and Patriots coming to New Orleans and not vice versa. Anyway, the Saints will win some big games this year but I just can’t take them for real because of 5 things. 1) Reggie Bush is their starting RB–the Harold Miner of the NFL. 2) Darren Sharper is their starting SS—yes, the same Darren Sharper from the Packers’ Super Bowl teams. And, yes, he’s 51 years old. 3) Teams that have a QB that lead the league in passing yards (which Brees will most likely do) usually don’t do well in the playoffs, if make the playoffs at all. 4) This team still has Jeremy Shockey on it—I mean, that’s just such a negative intangible as the season goes on. 5) Have I mentioned that Reggie Bush is their starting RB? A guy who can’t really run up the middle and isn’t fast enough to outrun CBs like he could in college? Just wanted to make sure I pointed that out.
Possibility: they win the South.
Reality: they win 2nd place in the South. Pass-wacky teams with no running games should only win divisions if the other teams have insurmountable injuries.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden was starting to lose a step last year and Monte Kiffin decided he was bigger than the team and declared, before the season ended, that he was leaving at the end of the year. Now, Raheem Morris has been promoted to head coach and Jim Bates was brought in to handle the defensive coordinator duties. Both are smart, solid moves.
Possibility: QB controversy could derail the team—Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich are both solid QBs but what if whoever the starter is starts to falter for 2 or 3 games in a row?
Reality: I don’t know why but I think Tampa rebounds from last year. And, it may not be scientific but the reason I believe this is their year is that they get a bye week after their game in London against the Patriots (i.e.-they get to soak in everything associated with that trip and not have to worry about flying back for a game in the States 6 days later).
NFC West (non-division games — AFC South and NFC North)
Arizona Cardinals — Teams that lose in the Super Bowl usually have bad follow-up years, per the trend in the NFL over the last ten years or so. Also, a member of the Cardinals is on the cover of the latest Madden game. Uh-oh.
Possibility: the Cards easily win the West because, well, the West sucks.
Reality: the Cards take 2nd place because…
St. Louis Rams — …oh, what, like the Rams winning the South this year is any crazier than an 8-8 Cardinals team being 2 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl last year?
Possibility: the Rams do what the Rams do and suffer a stockpile of massive injuries and fall to the cellar again.
Reality: the Rams’ offensive line is comprised of 2 guys w/ 5 years experience, 2 guys w/ 6 years experience, and 1 guy w/ 7 years experience (all right in that sweet spot of not too young and not too old); Marc Bulger is a sneaky great QB when he’s not hurt and has a line protecting him; Stephen Jackson should be healthy; most importantly, though, is that Steve Spagnuolo will be your Coach Of The Year. This team will be on no one’s radar and Spagnuolo will turn this defense into one that looks similar to his groups with the Giants: a bunch of who-dat’s that wind up kicking teams in the mouth. Rams win the West.
San Francisco 49ers — I look forward to Mike Singletary’s press conferences.
Possibility: 3rd place.
Reality: last place. When your franchise wins 5 Super Bowls in a 16-year stretch, you have to live through some futile years. Sorry.
Seattle Seahawks — I was prepared to write things like “if the Seahawks can stay healthy, they have a legitimate shot with their upgraded WR corps” and “maybe now that Mike Holmgren is gone, a new underdog mentality will make this team a little fiestier.” I was going to write things like that. I really was. But then I saw that Jim Mora, Jr. is the head coach of this team—something that I had completely forgotten about. Instead, I will write things like “Mora will cost this team 2 victories” and “what the fuck were the Seahawks’ front office thinking?”…
Possibility: they go 7-1 or 6-2 at home (their home schedule looks pretty favorable) and win the West with a .500 road record.
Reality: the Football Gods laugh and point at Mora’s face when the cameras pan to it on the TV, made all the more hilarious to them because this is what Seattle must endure for two more years as punishment for complaining about the officiating in the Super Bowl long after the game was over. 3rd place.
Predictions
2005 playoff teams
AFC: Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Colts
NFC: Redskins, Buccaneers, Panthers, Giants, Seahawks, Bears
2006 playoff teamsAFC: Chiefs, Colts, Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Chargers
NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Bears
2007 playoff teams
AFC: Jaguars, Steelers, Titans, Chargers, Patriots, Colts
NFC: Redskins, Seahawks, Giants, Buccaneers, Packers, Cowboys
2008 playoff teams
AFC: Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins, Titans, Steelers
NFC: Falcons, Cardinals, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, Giants
As you can see, teams making repeat entrances into the post-season aren’t a given. And there are always surprises. Always.
So, look at last year’s playoff grouping. In the AFC, I’ll take the Colts, Chargers, Pats, and Steelers to win their division and make the playoffs. Which leaves us with the Ravens, Dolphins, and Titans—will any of them be in the playoffs for another year? I’ll take the Ravens and Miami but Tennessee will be staying home. My surprise team out of the AFC will be the Chiefs.
In the NFC, I like the Giants to win their division and the Cardinals to appear in the post-season again. Otherwise, I like the Bears, Buccaneers, Rams, and Saints to be the new entrants in this upcoming post-season.
As much as I don’t like to pick 5 of the same teams from the AFC to make repeat playoff appearances (and I’m sure I’ll be way off because of it), I just can’t put my finger on who will be huge overachievers this year and make their way in (the Broncos? the Browns? the Jets?). The NFC, though, I think will be crazier. So, here’s how what 2009 playoff picture looks like:
2009 playoff teams
AFC: Ravens, Chiefs, Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Colts
NFC: Giants, Cardinals, Bears, Buccaneers, Rams, Saints
Super Bowl Prediction (of which I’m no doubt horribly wrong)
Bears vs. Chiefs
With the addition of Cutler, the Bears lead the league in time of possession and eke out a thriller against the Giants. As for the Chiefs… oh yeah, it’s a gigantic long shot. But, hey, it’s the 50th anniversary of the AFL merger this year and those Legacy Games and throwback jerseys have to help one of those teams out, right? Why not the Chiefs? They’ve suffered through the Schottenheimer and Herm Edwards years and Carl Peterson is finally out of there too (and replaced by former Patriots whiz Scott Pioli, no less). And, besides, how indescribably awesome would it be to see all of that NFL Films clips of Lenny Dawson metriculatin’ the ball down the field during the Super Bowl pre-game? The Chiefs beat the Patriots in New England as Matt Cassell celebrates in Foxboro, and Pioli hoists the Lamar Hunt Trophy (named after the Chiefs’ owner and architect of the AFL) as Belichick and Kraft stare blankly off in the distance.
I know I’m totally wrong here but, whatever, it’s a prediction. And one that would be damn cool to see happen.